Procurement Sentiment for Aluminum Weakens, Transaction Prices Fall [SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review]

SMM January 20:

The SHFE aluminum 2602 contract weakened in the morning session, with the price center lower than the previous trading day. Today, overall market transactions remained weak due to subdued buying sentiment, with mainstream transaction prices mainly ranging from a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. The east China market selling sentiment index was 2.85 today, up 0.01 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.44, down 0.27 MoM. SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 23,680 yuan/mt, down 190 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 160 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, flat from the previous day.

The aluminum price rebounded during the night session and early trading, coupled with heavy snow disrupting transportation in many parts of Henan, affecting shipments from aluminum plants and purchases by downstream users. Demand from processing enterprises weakened, and buying sentiment among traders in the central China market declined significantly compared to the previous day. Meanwhile, trading firms engaging in both spot and futures markets and suppliers sold on price rallies, leading to ample spot cargo supply and weak willingness among traders to hold prices firm. Eventually, the actual transaction prices in the central China market weakened from a premium of 30 yuan/mt against the central China price before the opening to a discount of 10 yuan/mt against the central China price, and transaction volume weakened compared to yesterday. The central China market selling sentiment index was 2.68 today, up 0.01 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.19, down 0.08 MoM. SMM central China price closed at 23,560 yuan/mt, down 180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 280 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous day. The price spread between Henan and Shanghai was -120 yuan/mt, narrowing by 10 yuan/mt from the previous day.

Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 12,000 mt WoW on Wednesday, with the main buildup locations being Wuxi and Gongyi. In the short term, high aluminum prices may continue to suppress end-use demand, and aluminum ingots still face inventory buildup risks; spot premiums/discounts are expected to remain under pressure.